Bakersfield, Kern
County still growing ... but slower

BY STEVEN MAYER

May 8, 2017

It’s a race whose finish line keeps getting pushed farther
down the track.

Projections released this month by the California Department
of Finance indicate Kern County will eventually overtake Fresno County, its
larger sibling to the north, in population.

But don’t plan a parade just yet.

At current rates of growth it could take more than three
decades to catch up, said Peter Smith, a demographer with Kern Council of
Governments, which keeps track of and helps plan local transportation needs,
now and in the future.

“This is kind of ephemeral, years into the future,” Smith
said.

The projections are focused on a moving target. In 2012,
Finance Department projections suggested a much earlier date at which Kern
would overtake Fresno County.

At that time data indicated Kern would pass Fresno by 2025 —
and would boast nearly 300,000 more residents than Fresno County by 2050.

But population growth is a function of job growth, Smith
said. And the slowdown in Kern's oil sector and other factors have slowed
Kern's population growth.

In January 2016, Kern's population was estimated to be
886,507. A year later, it had grown to 895,112, a growth rate of only about 1
percent.

"The growth rate is still positive," Smith said,
"but it's mostly babies — more people being born than are dying. This was
once referred to as the natural increase."

More recent projections suggest that in 2055, Fresno County
will have 1.4 million people while Kern will hold 1.419 million.

If you thought changes in sentencing laws and problems with
prison overcrowding would reduce the county's prison population, think again.

The population in a category known as "group
quarters," which includes student dorms, prisons and other living
situations with a communal kitchen, was up 700 from a year ago, Smith said.

More traditional housing units — mostly single-family homes
— increased from 294,401 in 2016 to 296,596 this year.

"We're a long way from the boom days," Smith said
of the pre-crash real estate market. "But it does show positive
growth."

Meanwhile, Bakersfield’s population grew by about 4,000 over
the past year, retaining the city's ranking as the ninth most populous city in
California.

Additionally, the city of Shafter landed on the top-10 list
of percentage growth rankings. According to the data, Shafter's population
increased by 4.5 percent between January 2016 and January of this year, the
fourth highest percentage increase in the state.

http://www.bakersfield.com/news/bakersfield-kern-county-still-growing-but-slower/article_545fc8ac-d3ca-5df2-aee5-a3b6c9aa9fc2.html